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December
1st
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Shortstop Week, Day Six

by Tim Polko

To wrap up shortstop week, here are the remaining upper level shortstops.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the AL

American League East

Baltimore Orioles
Minor League Free Agents:
Eddy Martinez, 23, B:R, T:R. Eddy's developed a little power, a little speed, and passable strike zone judgement. His defense appears lacking since he committed an error roughly every four games this season. He's young and versatile enough where he could still turn into a decent bench player or even occasional starter. Seven years of experience before his 24th birthday appears impressive, and I hope some team with good coaches gives Eddy a shot, since he's not ready for the majors right now.

Prospects:
Eddy Garabito, 22, B:S, T:R. The Orioles have promoted him while ignoring his skill deterioration at advanced levels, but he could still mature into a solid major leaguer. He needs some work on his plate discipline and more consistency in the field and on the basepaths. His power should develop in a few years, which means the Orioles should send him back for another full year of AAA to see if he'll mature into a potential starting middle infielder or just a big league backup. We should have a good idea of his direction by the end of next season.
Joey Hammond, 23, B:R, T:R. Hammond posseses very good plate discipline along with fairly solid defense at almost every position. He doesn't have a lot of power or almost any speed, but his other skills should enable him to at least be a decent utility player. His potential will rise in direct proportion to any power that he develops. He should receive a cup-of-coffee by 2003.
Ed Rogers, 19, B:R, T:R. I'm not surprised that the Orioles love him considering that he shows very solid defense at SS, very good speed, and solid power for his age. They happily ignore the fact that his shown no ability to tell a ball from a strike. I'd send him back to A+ Frederick until he learned the distinction, but he at least needs a full year of both AA and AAA before he has a chance of succeeding in the majors. He could be a long-term solution at short if they handle his development properly. Considering that we're discussing the Orioles, that scenario is unlikely. Think 2004 for roto purposes, and do your best to ignore any hype that you hear when they bring him up in September of 2003 after he's walked five time in 400 AAA at-bats.


Boston Red Sox
Minor League Free Agents:
James Lofton was reviewed with American League Shortstops.

Prospects:
Jon Shave, 33, B:R, T:R. Shave is an established AAA player, possessing a little power, a little speed, some plate discipline, and acceptable defense at most infield positions. He doesn't really have the ability to contribute in the majors other than as a temporary injury fill-in, and his statistics are too inconsistent to consider drafting him even if he appears to have a role.
Freddy Sanchez, 23, B:R, T:R. The Red Sox have promoted him very aggressively over the last two years, covering four leagues and the AFL since he was drafted in the 11th round in 2000. They have good reason, as he hit over .325 in all three leagues this year, showing solid doubles' power with his great ability to make contact. On the down side, he has been old for his leagues, he has no speed, his plate discipline has deteriorated at every level, and he makes too many errors. Taking all this into account, he should make the majors sometime in 2003 as the Red Sox third basemen. He'll end up as Shea Hillenbrand if he doesn't learn to control the strike zone although most analysts have a good feeling about his potential, a premonition that I tend to share.


New York Yankees
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
I reviewed Erick Almonte yesterday; after promoting Alfonso Soriano and dealing D'Angelo Jimenez, the rest of the Yankee shortstop prospects are at lower levels and shouldn't see the majors in 2002.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Jorge Cantu, 19, B:R, T:R. Cantu won't be a very good major leaguer unless the Devil Rays stop promoting him until he masters a level. He didn't show anything special in A-ball last year but they sent him AA anyway, where he didn't really hold his own. His defense was about average, but he was caught more often than he successfully stole a base, and showed neither power nor any semblance of plate discipline. They must return him to AA for another year or two until he learns some of these skills, and a promotion to AAA in 2002 could significantly harm his future prospects. ETA of 2004 at the absolute earliest unless he finds Mjolnir lying about sans Thor.


Toronto Bluejays
Minor League Free Agents:
Aaron Holbert, 28, B:R, T:R. Holbert has negligible power, only a little speed, and poor plate discipline. He doesn't appear to have any major league-ready skills, and would be kept as purely a defensive utility infielder in the next few years.

Prospects:
Jerson Perez, 25, B:R, T:R. Considering how loaded the Bluejays' system is with major league-ready shortstops, I don't expect him to help them any time soon. His defense needs some work, he doesn't have much power or speed, and his plate discipline, while improved over the last few years, still needs a lot of work. He's displayed some skill in the past, but I don't foresee him as anything more than a AAAA player at best.


American League Central

Chicago White Sox
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Jason Dellaero, 24, B:S, T:R. Selected in the first round in 1997, Dellaero has been viewed as the White Sox shortstop of the future for a few years. He's done little to support that opinion, posting acceptable power numbers but absolutely abysmal plate discipline. The Sox stupidly promoted him after he hit .185 in his second trip to AA Birmingham in 2000, and as expected, he slipped even more this year to a .178 BA, .509 OPS, and a 17:113 BB:K ratio. He's included here not because he's really a prospect, but because the Sox still seem to like him and his defense is fairly consistent. He certainly doesn't deserve his spot on a 40-man roster that includes Valentin, Clayton, and Graffanino, and he won't be helping any roto teams for several years if ever.
Tim Hummel, 22, B:R, T:R. Hummel carried his A-ball success to AA Birmingham, showing good plate discipline, some power and speed, and acceptable defense. His AFL performance showed an excellent grasp of the strike zone, but he needs another year or two in the minors to refine his defense and improve his ability to drive the ball. Consider him as a low-round minor league pick if your middle infield is solid for this year, as he should contribute a decent BA with a dozen steals whenever he breaks into the majors, probably in mid-2003 as the Sox second baseman. His figurines should appreciate nicely.
Danny Sandoval, 22, B:R, T:R. Sandoval has great speed, acceptable defense at short, third, and the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline most of the time. He has no power, so would likely peak as a utility player. I expect him to split next season between AA and AAA, with a potential arrival in the majors sometime in 2003 at best.


Cleveland Indians
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Tony Medrano, 26, B:R, T:R. Medrano's numbers are major-league caliber at a glance, but his power numbers are inflated due to his high number of at-bats. Ignoring his inability to drive the ball, he could help out any team in baseball as a utility guy. He can play any non-catching position competently, has solid speed, and has shown extremely good plate discipline. The Indians already re-signed him to a minor league deal for next year, and I hope he gets the opportunity to contribute in the majors in 2002 instead of some of the offensive ciphers currently on the 40-man roster. He could even be a temporary starter at 2B if they deal Alomar.
Jim Goelz, 25, B:R, T:R. Goelz showed decent defense this year, but contributes very little on offense since he has no power, speed, or command of the strike zone. He'll likely peak as a AAA fill-in unless he learns to hit the ball.
Greg LaRocca, 28, B:R, T:R. LaRocca dominated AA this year, an unsurprising development consideing he's played at AAA Las Vegas for the past few years. He showed excellent power at AAA after his promotion, and played acceptable defense at third. Greg could play in the majors as either a right-handed DH or reserve on the left side of the infield, and he could excel if he maintains control of the strike zone. His window is beginning to close, and he needs to find an organization that can use his somewhat specific talents.
Zach Sorensen, 24, B:S, T:R. Sorensen put up every impressive numbers in the AFL including a 1 BB:K ratio and an OPS of 1.026 along with playing solid defense. His performance redeemed himself after a fairly poor season at AA Akron where most of his offensive statistics slipped from last year. I'm surprised Cleveland didn't promote him to AAA to begin the year, but he could still turn into a decent major league starter if his AFL success is any prediction of his future. He could open the year as a utility infielder, but I'd give him most of the year at AAA Buffalo in the hopes that he can start at either middle infield position in 2003.


Detroit Tigers
Minor League Free Agents:
Giomar Guevara, 28, B:S, T:R. He's developed a little power as he's matured, but Guevara has no speed and lacks decent plate discipline. He also made an error almost every four games, and he'll need to show even more power improvement at AAA over the next few years before anyone should give him a shot.

Prospects:
Jhonny Perez, 24, B:R, T:R. He plays solid defense but contributes little offensively other than the occasional stolen base. Perez might make the majors as a utility infielder, but he won't stay for long unless some of his other skills show significant improvement.
Omar Infante, 19, B:R, T:R. Infante held his own at AA despite almost completely skipping A+ ball. His average was good but he showed very little power and really needs to walk more. He played fairly solid defense although I suspect he'll greatly struggle if they send him to AAA this season. Hopefully Dombrowski will make the correct decision to keep him at AA for another year or two until he can control the strike zone, since he could stagnate like Deivi Cruz has unless he receives enough development time.


Kansas City Royals
Minor League Free Agents:
Nick Ortiz, 27, B:R, T:R. Ortiz plays decent defense but doesn't drive the ball. Neither his plate discipline nor his speed has ever been particularly good either, and he should probably look for a AA position on a team that needs solid defense while developing a group of young pitchers.

Prospects:
I covered Angel Berroa on Thursday, and the Royals don't have any other prospects at the upper levels of the system


Minnesota Twins
Minor League Free Agents:
Mike Moriarty, 27, B:R, T:R. I'm rather shocked that he wasn't on the Twins this year as a reserve, since he has fairly good plate discipline and occasionally drives the ball. Moriarty played acceptable defense at AAA again this year, and has to be ecstatic about leaving an organization that left him in AAA four consecutive years. He could help at least half the teams in baseball as a utility infielder, but I wouldn't gamble on him for roto purposes since he's never hit well even in the years when he's shown excellent command of the strike zone. Right-hander Darren Holmes is his arch-enemy.

Prospects:
None.


American League West

Anaheim Angels
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Alfredo Amezaga, 23, B:S, T:R. The Angels never should have promoted him to AAA for the second half of this season. At AA, his OPS was under .800 with a 22:55 BB:K ratio; he also only stole 24 bases in 39 attempts. His skills regressed even more at AAA. I'd consider sending him back to master AA, but the Angels are talking about him starting the year in the majors. That makes no sense at all since they have a solid SS in Eckstein and acceptable to great starters around the rest of the infield. A fair compromise would be a full year at AAA, but I have concerns about his BA in the majors unless he finds a good hitting coach, something the Angels also lack on the major league staff.
Wilmy Caceres, 22, B:S, T:R. Caceres has great speed and plays very consistent defense in the middle infield, but he has little power and relatively no control of the strike zone. The Angels almost kept him as their starting SS but Eckstein thankfully beat him out. Then instead of letting him learn plate discipline in a return trip to AA, they let him post a .570 OPS in one of the minors' top hitters' ballparks at AAA Salt Lake. Unless they start handling him very carefully, a doubtful proposition at best, Caceres will peak as a speedy utility infielder. He's probably worth a buck since he'll grab a dozen steals even in very few at-bats, but make sure you can handle his probably atrocious BA.
Brian Specht, 19, B:S, T:R. Specht slipped after a great debut season in the Carolina league last year, with his numbers falling almost across the board in A+. The Angels stupidly promoted him (see a pattern?) to AA when Amezaga went to AAA, and both his offense and defense slipped further. I'd send him back to A+ to learn the strike zone, but he'll likely have to accomplish that at AA. If he can get back on track, he's the projected future 2B to Amezaga's SS, but the Angels need so much help in player development that I can't confidently project any of these players to have successful major league careers.


Oakland Athletics
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Mark Ellis, 24, B:R, T:R. Ellis followed up a solid AAA season with an even better six weeks in the AFL, where he posted a 21:12 BB:K ratio in only 104 AB. His defense is good enough to play any infield position and he also has solid speed. At worst, he should be the A's utility infielder for a couple of years, and he could easily start at 2B for them this year since he's better than Menechino right now. Definitely spend a buck or two on him in the draft, and he could return ten times that investment.
Jay Pecci, 24, B:S, T:R. Pecci should play several different positions at AAA in 2002 since he's shown soft hands all around the infield. His offensive numbers are a little shallow especially with regards to driving the ball, but he has solid plate discipline and a little speed. He might need two more years in the minors to refine his skills, but Pecci at least should be a solid utility guy in the majors. Jay could even start for a team with less talent than the A's.
Oscar Salazar, 23, B:R, T:R. Unless Salazar learns to control the strike zone, this should be his last year with the Athletics. He won't be promoted above AA until he learns to wait for his pitch and then drive the ball, and unfortunately his skills seemed to relapse this season while repeating at the great hitters' park in Midland. His defense also needs work but he could mature into a player similar to Tony Batista based on his current statistical history. He'll need to improve to be any more successful than that.


Seattle Mariners
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Willie Bloomquist, 23, B:R, T:R. Bloomquist possesses excellent speed and solid defense at both middle infield positions. His plate discipline needs a little work as he didn't carry his A+ numbers with him to AA and he needs to expand on his doubles' power, but he should be able to start at 2B by 2003. A Bret Boone re-signing would relegate him to trade bait unless they're open to playing Willie on the left side of the infield in the majors.
Antonio Perez, 19, B:R, T:R. Perez showed up to camp overweight, broke a bone in his wrist, played about a week of AA and then strained a hamstring, forcing him out for the year. 2001 was a wasted season for Perez, allowing Bloomquist and Ramon Vazquez to pass him on the depth chart, but he retains significant potential. He has extremely good power and speed, and while his plate discipline needs work, he's played very well considering his age. He'll need to return to AA next year, but now he's just one of the best prospects in the league while the same age as everyone else instead of a year ahead. I doubt he'll be in the majors before the middle of 2003, but he's still a trade target as some owners might be a little irked at the delay.


Texas Rangers
Minor League Free Agents:
Salvador Beltre, ??, ???, ???. I can't find any history on Beltre before this season but I'm sort of glad I didn't. He played for the Rangers' Dominican League team, hit .222 with a .566 OPS and much speed. More significantly, he committed an astonishing 47 errors in 61 games, so I wouldn't be surprised if Salvador didn't appear here again.

Prospects:
Danny Solano, 22, B:R, T:R. With that Rodriguez guy in the majors for the next nine years, the Rangers don't exactly need a lot of shortstops prospects, but that still doesn't excuse their handling of Solano. After a decent year in AA last year, albeit nothing overly fantastic, they probably should have promoted Solano to the majors. Instead they left Kelly Dransfeldt at AAA and returned Solano to Tulsa where his game slipped across the board. Now he should spend a third year there in an attempt to learn some plate discipline. He's still young enough to mature into a solid player, but I wouldn't expect him in the majors for at least another two years.



Most American League teams appear to promote their shortstop prospects more aggressively than the NL, an approach that can lead to significant growing pains at the upper levels. Oakland has more major-league ready talent than probably every other AL team combined if we ignore prospects that have already appeared in the majors. Several other prospects remain extremely young for their 2002 leagues, including Ed Rogers, Jorge Cantu, Omar Infante, and Antonio Perez. Look to acquire any of these players if they begin to show plate discipline at AA or higher.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Pay attention to the eventual destination of Erick Almonte. I strongly suspect that Yankees will trade him for veteran help, and he can immediately start and succeed for any team in the majors.

Click here to read the previous article.

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