November 27th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko We've noticed that our readership has increased substantially over the last few days. I'd like to take this opportunity to welcome new readers to this column and briefly discuss some of my goals. We're one of the very few websites which has at least two new columns every day even during the off-season. Jess & I read a significant amount of both baseball news and fantasy baseball materials and believe we can positively contribute to the conversation. We each write a daily column; Jess discusses current and/or interesting events in and around the game, and I focus more on the fantasy implications of these moves. I'm currently in the process of reviewing how players at different positions performed this past season. I covered catchers last week and am discussing shortstops this week. My goal is to briefly analyze why players performed the way they did, and perhaps speculate as to their future potential. I'll spend six days on most positions in order to provide information on as many players as possible. Outfielders and pitchers obviously will take longer than just a week to review, so we'll probably spend most of January on pitching. We provide 10 different dollar figures for each player, five each for 4x4 and 5x5 leagues. DV (Draft Value) is how much a player earned based on a 65/35 hitting/pitching split. DTCD (Draft Total Category Dollars) is the highest price that a player could have been drafted at and still contribute to your team (under a 65/35 split). AV (Actual Value) is how much a player earned based on a 50/50 hitting/pitching split. ATCD (Actual Total Category Dollars) is the highest price that you could have earned a player without losing money in leagues with an in-season salary cap. If your player had a salary higher than DTCD or ATCD in a salary cap league, you were wasting money on his roster spot. For those of you that are interested, I spent the first four days of the column reviewing how we calculate player values. You can access our old articles though the archive link listed at the left of every page for easy reference. We only have the directory structure available at the moment, but hope to add a list of article titles and dates in the near future. Lastly, I include a daily fantasy prescription in each article. I post a new player to acquire, strategy to try, idea to research, or merely general request or advice of some sort if I don't have a particular baseball-only recommendation for that day.
Enjoy day two of shortstop week.
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Martinez doesn't really have the skills to start but should continue succeeding in a utility role. His multiple position eligibility makes him somewhat useful to have around, although he doesn't contribute to an offense in a meaningful way.
He has good speed, but currently lacks plate discipline, power, and defensive ability. Punto showed extremely solid plate discipline until AAA this season, and could turn into a solid player if the Phillies show patience with him. Consider him as a late-round Ultra pick since he should be up in September at worst and has the potential to replace Anderson at second base by 2004.
Abbott missed most of the season with hernia surgery and only played sparingly when he returned. He hasn't shown significant power since 1995 when he was with Florida, and he's never exhibited even decent plate discipline. His ability to play anywhere in the infield seems to be valued by some clubs, so I expect him back in the majors next year. He still has the chance to reach double-digit HR again if a desperate team gives him 300 platoon at-bats. You probably should avoid him unless you need his flexibility and can take a chance with his fluctuating BA.
St. Rey is death for sim players and doesn't really help out regular fantasy teams either. He doesn't strike out too much, because he'll swing at almost anything resembling a pitch near the zone. On the bright side, he doubled his career home run total to 8 this season and shows a strong likelihood of reaching five or maybe even six home runs next season. If the Mets start him again next year instead of Relaford, they'll deserve their 4th place finish.
Baseball America named him the Snakes' best prospect before the season, a ranking that seemed only partially-supported by his past performance, and one that he didn't quite live up to this season. Arizona has continued to promote Cintron without forcing him to learn the strike zone, and while he's maintained decent power at the upper levels, his plate discipline has deteriorated badly. He needs to repeat AAA next season, where the Diamondbacks should let him develop power and strike zone judgment without rushing him to compete with Womack and Counsell, two battles that he should win by next season.
Betemit will be the Braves' starting shortstop, or possibly third baseman, or maybe second baseman, or possibly left fielder as soon as this season, or perhaps next season, or maybe just by 2004. He has excellent power for a 19-year old, and needs to consolidate his gains, preferably at AA. His plate discipline from last season didn't carry over to this year; he instead showed significant power including a .514 SLG in 183 AA at-bats. There's a good chance that Betemit can earn the standard $10 roto minor league salary as soon as he's up to stay. He's one of the top prospects in the game, but there's no reason for him to be in the majors before some time in 2003.
Everett probably isn't quite ready for the majors, but after two seasons in AAA New Orleans, the Astros really need to promote him. His plate discipline fell significantly this year, and his power dropped slightly; only a significant upturn in his stolen bases kept him from being completely useless. I just don't see another year at AAA helping any, so Houston needs to see if his doubles' power, speed, and often reportedly excellent defense will enable him to have some success at the major league level. Maybe hanging around Bagwell, Biggio, and Berkman will help him start walking and driving the ball, and Enron will certainly compensate for some of his shortcomings. Everett's speed could help him earn double digits of roto value, and he could be very valuable if he beats out Lugo for the starting shortstop job and #2 slot in the order.
His power and speed counting numbers at AA West Tennessee last season obscured obnoxiously bad plate discipline; Smith's walk rate wasn't even 5% and he struck out five times for each of those walks. Before his trade to Tampa, his numbers were almost as bad in AAA Iowa this year. There's no rational explanation for why the Devil Rays acquired him since he's never shown any command of the strike zone, and the Cubs should be extremely grateful to pick up a starting first baseman for a non-prospect and journeyman pitcher.
There were rumors at the AFL that the reason for his rather shoddy performance was that he felt he belonged in the majors instead of with the other minor leaguers. His defense is considered extremely good at shortstop, and its potentially excellent at second or third, and he did slug an acceptable .458 at AAA Fresno this season. However, he has no command of the strike zone, amassing over 130 strikeouts in each of his three full minor league seasons. He desperately needs to move his walk and strikeout numbers closer together, and should be returned to AAA until he manages to combine that with at least a .250 BA. If he's unable to make the attitude adjustment that a demotion necessitates, the Giants need to deal him to a team that is so desperate for even decent prospects that they won't care about character at all. Ransom has significant upside if he can learn pitch selection, but his BA will kill you until then, since the Giants may very well keep him as their second utility infielder.
Velandia also would be a better starting shortstop than Ordonez for the Mets. He's shown decent plate discipline at times but never anything more than doubles' power. He's an acceptable utility infielder for a team with good offense from its starters, but any help he gives to your roto team would be purely from luck.
Exhibit #1 for those that believe in saving FAAB. Sanchez has never hit more than three homers in a season, and his occasionally decent batting average is not supported by his command of the strike zone. His Gold Glove defense lets him have some value to a team with solid offense at every other position, but he doesn't contribute positively to that offense. He's maybe worth a buck if he signs with a manager that will bat him second and let him accumulate some fluke runs, but be very careful as he could easily perform several dollars below his salary.
Mainly known as one of Buck Showalter's favorite players, Fox's value is mostly limited to his versatility. He doesn't have almost any power, has poor command of the strike zone, and doesn't run as much as he did a few years ago. Once a $1 roto darling, Fox's value has disappeared unless you know he'll get consistent playing time in the spring - his SB upside probably warrants a buck if he'll have 150 or more AB.
We were pleased when the Cubs acquired him two years ago since he'd shown excellent plate discipline and a little bit of power. He performed even better at AAA Iowa before his 2000 call-up, even adding 16 SB to a decent all-around game. Unfortunately, while he might perform adequately in a full-time role, his shortcomings are exposed in limited playing time. Every aspect of his game suffered as a utility player this season, but he has certainly displayed solid skills in the past. Augie could be a passable replacement for a couple years if they let Ricky Gutierrez leave as a free agent. Bid a buck or two if he starts, although avoid him otherwise as he might not rebound to his AAA form in part-time duties.
Gomez has no power or speed, so any roto value would accrue from a solid BA. His lacking plate discipline precludes this from becoming an issue more than every few years. A free agent, there's no reason for Gomez not to return to Tampa since they have few alternatives. I'd be surprised to see anyone else offer him a starting job or even a guaranteed contract above the minimum.
No speed, no plate discipline, and no power means that Castro has no chance of contributing to a good roto team. I have no idea why the Reds felt the need to secure his services for the next year or two instead of arbitration-eligible players with established value, like Casey and Young, or even guys with significant perceived value, like Reese and Graves. Jim Bowden's ability can be called into question based on this contract alone.
Wilson has shown solid plate discipline, decent power and speed, and acceptable defense around the infield over the past few seasons. He's always performed better with consistent playing time, so his questionable performance in the NL this season wasn't a complete surprise. We managed the neat trick in one league of drafting him in the first Ultra round at a $15 salary when we thought Boston would deal for him, barely playing him at all for six weeks, and then picking up $15 FAAB when the Yankees picked him up. While we realize that this bonus was pure luck as the Pirates could have kept him, we drafted him when we felt the Red Sox would deal for him. Our instincts were right; we just picked the wrong AL East team.
Mendez, a Rule 5 pick from the Astros a year ago, needs to start the year at AA and show some plate discipline there. He can be promoted quickly both to AAA and the majors once in learns the strike zone, since he has very little power and isn't likely to develop any more for several years. His roto value lies exclusively in speed, and even as a utility infielder, he'll steal a dozen bases or so. We've seen rumors that the Padres might let him compete with Damian Jackson for the 2B job. This would be a mistake, as Mendez both needs to reclaim his lost year of development time and could be a better defensive shortstop than Jimenez. You probably don't want to take on his risky BA if he makes the team, but chance a low Ultra pick if he gets sent down; you'll have a lottery ticket with serious SB potential when he learns to hit.
Cam Bonifay made the idiotic decision to jump Wilson over AAA to the majors this season, because Lloyd McClendon liked Jack's defense. Even though AAA Nashville is a Pirate prospect graveyard, I attribute much of that to former hitting coach Richie Hebner (who helped keep the Phillies out of the playoffs as their major league hitting coach this season). Wilson might have been able to mature offensively with some decent coaching, since Hebner has departed. Unfortunately the Pirates completely destroyed his offensive development, as his flaws in plate discipline were greatly exacerbated by the level skip. Wilson has shown decent speed, power, and even command of the strike zone in the past. I can't think of a good reason why they couldn't have let some combination of Enrique Wilson, Warren Morris, Pat Meares, and even Mike Benjamin share the middle infield this season instead of rushing one of their few decent prospects to the majors. Wilson's upside is probably the current performance of Florida's Alex Gonzalez, unless he gets that development time, but he has the potential to bust out at some point. I just wouldn't expect it for a couple more years at the earliest.
Joey's younger brother was the worst position player in fantasy baseball this season. Considering the additional 50 AB in 2001, he nearly repeated last year's numbers across the board. He's never shown plate discipline or HR power at any level, and while I expect he'll improve due to his relatively young age and over two years of major league experience, this improvement will probably be from $-8 to $-4. The rumored trade of Neifi Perez for Luke Prokopec would be a decided improvement for LA, since replacing Cora with free talent like David Eckstein a year ago would have probably added a half dozen wins to the Dodger total. Alex to Neifi will probably only help them win an extra 3 or 4 games.
We'll review Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL tomorrow.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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