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November
26th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Shortstop Week, Day One

by Tim Polko

Hopefully Shortstop Week will develop more organization than Catcher Week now that I have a better idea of what this project entails. I'm going to spend three days covering National League shortstops from the all-stars to the worst minor league free agents and wannabe prospects, and then spend the next three days doing the same for the AL.

As always, please send in comments and hopefully I'll spend Sunday's column looking at specifically requested teams' shortstop situations.

We currently plan to post this week's articles in the following order:
Monday: National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Tuesday: National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Wednesday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL.
Thursday: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Friday: American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Saturday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the AL.

National League Shortstops with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Rich Aurilia 636206.32437971114 SS-149
SF Giants DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 32312424 13
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 32292423 14

Most of you should know the tune for this one:
(For those of you that need a hint: S&G)

(Refrain)
Aurilia
You draft him at short
He let Bonds drive him in daily
Whoa, Aurilia, not Pedro Feliz
I'm begging you please to run home

Run on home.

Playing ball in the afternoon with Aurilia
Out at new PacBell, playing ball
He goes up to reach first base
But instead of fastballs
All his hits curves erase

(Refrain)

Who'll hit third

Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow
Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow

Just not Dunston, he'll strike out again
I won't see a strike if he's whiffing
Please not Dunston, he'll strike out again
I won't see a strike when he's whiffing

Whoa Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow
Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Snow Show


2 AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jimmy Rollins 656180.27414544697 SS-157
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 28272121 12
2001 Age: 22 5x5: 28262120 11

I'll be shocked if he earns this much next year, as Rollins' questionable plate discipline suggests he won't be on base quite as often. His sophomore slump won't be as bad as Furcal's, but I'd have a hard time bidding above $20. He'll lose runs if Rolen is dealt, though I think only maybe a dozen or so, since I have faith in Burrell's ability to hit clean-up.


3. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Orlando Cabrera 626173.27614961964 SS-162
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 19191514 3
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 19181414 10

Orlando's currently the best Cabrera in professional baseball. We expected him to earn double digits this year due largely to his consistently decent BB:K ratio, but not close to $20. He won't repeat the counting stats since he's unlikely to ever have 626 at-bats again, and he really shouldn't be hitting cleanup. Watch their spring lineup carefully; if he stays hitting fourth, gamble to the mid-teens, but otherwise drop your bid two bucks for every lineup slot. Early instinct says 6th & $12, but you might get him for less as many people don't realize the quality of his performance this year.


4. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Placido Polanco 564173.3073381287 SS-42, 3B-104
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 19181414 3
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 19181514 5

He's not the Cardinals' MVP any more than Mike Matheny was last year. Polanco's value stems mainly from his 564 AB, as his skills remained remarkably similar to past seasons' numbers. Like Cabrera, he could repeat in the teens with consistent playing time, and his upside remains completely dependent on the Cards' offseason acquisitions. He'll likely start unless they acquire a new corner OF and corner IF.


5. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Desi Relaford 30191.3028361343 SS-25, 2B-54, 3B-20
NY Mets DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 14141111
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 13131010

Smart owners noticed that Relaford had more walks than strikeouts in 2000, 13 steals without being caught once, and had just turned 27. Congratulations to both of you. I don't expect him to repeat these numbers as his BB:K dropped by 60% and his OPS was almost 200 points above his previous career high. Conversely, recognize that he improved his OPS significantly while moving to another good pitchers' park, and combined his power from '98 with his speed from 2000. If he starts, bid right up to double digits; if he doesn't, I wouldn't even go half of that.


6. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Tony Womack 481128.2663302866 SS-118
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 14131010 30
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 14141110 24

If you're going to overpay for category certainty, you should really make sure that you'll get it. Sim players know that Tony Womack doesn't help a real team. While his SB% stays very good, his OBP is too awful to use in the top of the lineup where his speed could help. The Diamondbacks are reportedly shopping him, so pay careful attention to his 2002 manager's established running habits. If its Brenly or someone like Jimy Williams, keep your bids around $12, but he could well earn $20 or more on a team that will ignore his OBP, lead him off, and give him a permanent green light.


7. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ricky Gutierrez 528153.2901066476 SS-144
CH Cubs DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 13131010 4
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 14141111 7

His RBIs should have been higher but Baylor hit him 2nd for much of the year after Mueller's injury. Gutierrez is a better player than Sir Alex Gonzalez the Elder and expects to be paid accordingly: $6-7M/year instead of the $5M in Toronto. He'll likely earn his salary in almost any park, so try to sneak him in under $10 and hope for the best.


8. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Rafael Furcal 32489.2754302239 SS-79
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 13131010 30
2001 Age: 20 5x5: 121299 27

Expect a power increase even if he's not three years older than his listed age. Furcal should head a very solid top of the order with Marcus Giles and the Jones' boys hitting behind him. He could be very valuable in 5x5 leagues and should help you in steals like you expected last year. His 2002 upside is Jimmy Rollins with protection in the #2 spot; his downside involves more headfirst slides into first base.


9. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Neifi Perez 382114.298747665 SS-87
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 121299 12
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 13131010 15

Likely earned his salary and then enabled you to replace him with someone like Relaford for the last two months of the year. We know Neifi's not a great player, and most of us know that he's worse than average. He's also Kansas City's problem for now, so the only decision is whether his age-27 year in 2002 will actually be worth more than a dollar in AL leagues.


10. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Edgar Renteria 493128.26010571754 SS-137
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 101188 24
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 101188 23

I remain convinced he'll earn his $20+ salary one of these years, especially since we keep hearing that he's actually a year or two younger than his listed age. If he's back with the Cardinals, LaRussa should just leave him in the #2 hole between Vina and Drew, however I suspect he won't get above 6th unless he changes teams. The Cardinals still like him, but he's also attractive trade bait, likely drawing interest from half the teams in baseball. His value jumps at least a few bucks if you know he'll get an extra 100 at-bats.


11. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Juan Uribe 27382.300853332 SS-69
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 101088
2001 Age: 21 5x5: 91077

He lacks any semblance of plate discipline although Coors will keep his average at acceptable levels. His counting numbers' upside is in line with Juan Pierre, but don't expect those numbers for another two years. Uribe's only 22 now, so do expect some growing pains in the near future. He's a must-own if your league counts triples, since he hit 11 in only 273 at-bats.


12. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Julio Lugo 513135.26310371293 SS-133
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 8866 14
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 101088 16

He could have between 150 and 550 at-bats next season, completely dependent on the health of Craig Biggio and the progress of Adam Everett. Lugo didn't really earn his salary this year, but I suspect he'll wind up close to $20 next year since he he'll have two seasons under his belt and still be hitting between Biggio and Bags in HomeRun Field.


13. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Wilton Guerrero 14248.33818516 SS-16
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 7766 Res
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 6755

This dollar value should be in the dictionary under "fluke." He makes decent contact but try to remember that he swings at everything near the strike zone, a style like his younger brother but lacking Vlad's power. Wilton's SS-eligibility makes him an interesting $1 gamble with the uncertainty in the Reds' infield. I don't see any long-term potential as he doesn't walk, has questionable defensive skills, and little power. Draft at your own risk; he's still more likely to stay on the field for the entire season than Larkin.


14. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Craig Counsell 458126.275438676 SS-58, 2B-55, 3B-38
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 7756
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 9977

Current poster boy for "In the right place at the right time", Counsell lucked into a roster spot, starting job, NLCS MVP, and another World Series' ring. He had a 31:26 BB:K as of July 1, so he was an obvious pick-up even if he wasn't going to receive all the extra playing time. While Craig could repeat this performance, his limited upside makes him a better candidate for a low and hopeful bid instead of expecting him to earn close to $10 again.


15. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jose Hernandez 542135.2492578567 SS-150
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 7755 3
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 8967 7

He's much more useful at short than at third, but temper your expectations. His complete lack of strike zone judgement means his average could fall even further, and 2001 quite likely represented Hernandez's power peak. I'd have problems bidding more than a couple bucks next year, since even if he can repeat the homers, the RBI and runs are dependent on Burnitz's return and Hammonds' good health. Neither one of those propositions appears too probable at the moment.


16. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Pokey Reese 42896.2249402550 SS-78, 2B-51
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 5644 18
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 6755 13

Please don't let the Cubs trade for him. Please don't let the Cubs trade for him. Please don't let the Cubs trade for him. Please don't let the Cubs trade for him.

Pokey could excel in the right situation, such as playing second for AA El Paso. Even if he can return to his form of previous seasons, he still hurts your sim team, and any fantasy help he provides should be outweighed by the obvious incongruity of owning a speed guy named Pokey!


17. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
D'Angelo Jimenez 30885.276333245 SS-85
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 4534
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 5644

Diary of a great GM:
November 17, 1995: Began new job as General Manager with an organization that includes LeRoy McKinnis, Hal Garrett, and Tim Worrell
January 9, 1997: Traded LeRoy McKinnis for Mark Smith.
March 29, 1997: Traded Mark Smith and Hal Garrett for Trey Beamon and Angelo Encarnacion.
November 19, 1997: Traded Tim Worrell and Trey Beamon for Dan Miceli, Donne Wall, and Ryan Balfe.
November 15, 1999: Traded Dan Miceli for Brian Meadows.
July 31, 2000: Traded Brian Meadows for Jay Witasick.
December 11, 2000: Traded Donne Wall for Bubba Trammell.
June 23, 2001: Traded Jay Witasick for D'Angelo Jimenez.

I expect Jimenez to be starting the Padres' middle infield for at least the next four years. His speed and power should both increase this season as he becomes more comfortable in the majors. Grab him in keeper leagues before everyone else notices his upside.


18. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mark DeRosa 16447.287320227 SS-48
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 4433
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 3433

DeRosa has enough talent to start if the Braves need a brief replacement for an injured player in the infield, but he shouldn't be used as anything more than a capable utility infielder. Of course, his bat is still better than that of Rey Sanchez, so that trade really didn't help them and probably demoralized DeRosa. He's an acceptable dollar player if you're desperate and he could be quite helpful as an Ultra reserve pick.


19. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Abraham Nunez 30179.262121830 SS-48, 2B-48
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 3433
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 3533

Nunez's value increases in direct proportion to his plate discipline. He desperately needs a hitting coach to instruct him in the finer points of pitch selection. His roto value depends entirely on playing time at this point. Bench him if they start to play him every day since his BA will likely hurt you, but be open to grabbing his few cheap steals for a buck if the opportunity presents itself.


20. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jose Vizcaino 25671.277114338 SS-53
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 3423 2
2001 Age: 33 5x5: 3433 Res

A perfectly average $1 player with BA-only upside, Vizcaino's value this year derived directly from his presence in the Stadium Soon To Be Formerly Known As Enron. If he returns to Houston or provides Colorado with a veteran MIF backup, he could be a useful injury replacement. You should probably avoid him otherwise, as he demonstrates little offensive skill.


21. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jeff Reboulet 21457.266322035 SS-56, 2B-22
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 1211
2001 Age: 37 5x5: 1312

Reboulet turned in the second best batting average of his career in a pitcher's park at age 37. He's always displayed solid plate discipline with no power and problematic batting average. He doesn't help the Dodgers, and his career path strongly suggests that this was his last high point. The Dodgers picked up his $450,000 option for next season, so avoid him unless you need his position flexibility for some non-statistical reason.


22. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Barry Larkin 15640.256217329 SS-44
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 1211 18
2001 Age: 38 5x5: 1311 20

Even if he looks great in spring training, you're making a mistake if you bid into double digits. Everyone knows he'll be injured at some point, and it could be long enough to keep his value at a buck like last year. Potential Hall-of-Famer or not, Larkin hurts the Reds with his salary and desire to stay at SS, and remains a speculative gamble in fantasy leagues. We know he has great upside, but you probably should avoid him regardless of price unless you have a taxi squad and can pick up a decent backup for his DL time.


23. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Alex Gonzalez 515129.250948257 SS-142
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 1211 1
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 2423 3

Interesting tidbit from the AFL Symposium: Sir Alex the Elder of Toronto is known as "Alex S. Gonzalez" because Sir Alex the Younger of Florida has no middle name. We may be practically alone in this belief, but Sir Alex the Younger has solid roto potential. He's still quite young and already has over three years in the majors. His plate discipline increased dramatically this year as his BB:K rose 66% from last year's, and his walk rate also almost doubled, nearing 6% for the first time. Gonzalez still needs significant improvement before he'll help a sim team and likely won't hit double digits of roto value any time soon. However if you need to fill a roster spot at the end of the draft, Alex will earn your dollar back for you, and has good potential to earn a few bucks of profit.


Early conclusions from Day One: the best profit was from post-hype players like Cabrera and Polanco and consistent veterans like Aurilia and Gutierrez. While the NL doesn't have the star power of the AL, I think there's probably more quality depth here with a significant possibility for growth from several interesting young shortstops.

We'll review National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: You've read John Sickels' work on ESPN.com and in STATS' Minor League Scouting Notebook. Now subscribe to the really interesting material (if you haven't already). John is writing a weekly newsletter over the winter, providing several screens of commentary for less than a dollar an issue. This knowledge is quite useful for both diehard fantasy players and casual fans interested in their team's prospects. E-mail John for more info. Subscribe now and gain access to insights and information that few of your fellow owners even know exists.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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