November 21st 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Today's rankings should be less of a surprise. Everyone knows that there were two really good catchers in the American League this year. However, few people seem to realize that nearly all the quality catching depth mainly came from backups who exceeded their projections. Many owners also had problems when some formerly reliable performers hit the mid-30's hitting a wall at which many catchers begin failing rapidly. After reviewing several leagues in which we participated, .2609 appeared appropriate for the median batting average. Given this stipulation, seventeen catchers appear draft-worthy by our calculations, two more than in the National League despite two less teams. We drafted as many hits as misses this year, owning IRod (and then replacing him with Hall) and Pierzynski in a couple leagues, but we also kept expecting a rebound by Fordyce through July. While we didn't spend much money on catching this year overall, we'll try to spend even less next year while hoping for similar performances by some of the young catching crop finally maturing in the AL. American League Catchers with Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest postive draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Perhaps the best all-around catcher ever, IRod appears to be slowing down. His knees are somewhat shot, indicating he only has two years or so left at catcher. Texas has to make a decision regarding what's more important to them: winning a World Series or keeping a Hall of Famer on his original team for his whole career. Rodriguez will remain an above average offensive catcher for as long as can stay behind the plate, but he's not worth ARod or Jeter dollars. If he'll accept Shawn Green money ($16-17 mil a year), Texas should probably re-sign him. More than that, and he'll simply be too big a drain on the payroll.
Despite an impressive overall season, Posada seemed to tire in the second half. There are rumors that the Yankees are looking for a reliable backup (unlike Joe Oliver and Todd Greene) to keep Posada rested for September and October. Bump his value up a couple bucks if they find one, as Posada can maintain these power numbers while raising his average. Watch his strikeouts; if he can cut back a little, he might even jump up close to IRod in overall value.
A free-swinger, Pierzynski seems to hit most of the pitches at which he swings. He should probably be platooned with a decent right-handed catcher (not Tom Prince) since Pierzynski can't hit lefties at all, but he should stabilize Twins' catching until Joe Mauer arrives. Watch out for Minnesota in Scrabble tournaments that allow proper names.
I have no idea what position he'll play next year, and I doubt the Tigers know either. He doesn't enough power to play 1B, probably doesn't have the arm for right, and Detroit won't let him catch. Hopefully, Dombrowski will realize that they need offense anywhere they can find it, and stick Fick back at catcher. A Fick/Rivera platoon would allow them to continue messing around with Macias and Halter as starters.
He's hit solidly in the minors and can certainly produce for your team if he can find at-bats. As long as the Angels leave him in at least a platoon role, he'll be worth four dollars or more at the draft. Since half their team appears to be in flux, be ready to jump in should Wooten appear to be gaining playing time.
While not as young as some owners believe, Diaz has some solid skills and should perform capably for a couple years. Like Seattle, Cleveland's offense will make almost any catcher look good. Be willing to draft Diaz for a few bucks, then grab his backup if you have a taxi squad. These numbers are probably Einar's peak, so be careful not to overbid.
Tampa's probable All-Star next July, Hall continued hitting in the majors almost as well as his league-leading minor league numbers. A minor injury kept his counting numbers low enough where he might pass under some people's radar, but you should make every effort to draft him next year. Thirty RBI in 188 AB on the worst offensive team in the league is extremely impressive, and he could easily be the second most valuable catcher in the league next year. He'll also help your roto team more than Tampa since he almost never walks, so sim players should only draft Hall if they can afford to use his power low in the order.
Quietly gave the Mariners almost acceptable production from their catching slot, but he seems to be slipping after all his injury problems. Seattle's offense can make almost any catcher draft-worthy, but keep your bids below $3. You'll have a nice bargain if he can double that, and at least should get a little help in counting numbers. Wilson grew up in a suburb adjoining mine, and impressed enough people enough in high school where he still gets an occasional mention in the youth sports' sections in local papers.
Zaun is the catcher that I'd target on the free agent market this year, even over Javy Lopez and potentially Charles Johnson. I'd expect him to look for the security of a multi-year deal and starting commitment, and he could excel in the right environment. If he lands on a good hitting team in even an average ballpark, don't be afraid to bid close to $10.
If he needs clean-up surgery on his knee, he'll be out at least until the All-Star break. Don't draft him until you see him playing in spring training games without pain. The Red Sox are notoriously horrible when it comes to accurate injury updates, and Varitek's situation will likely be the same. He has the skills to excel when healthy. Pick him up cheap and hope for the best in '03, but don't expect much next season.
Hernandez showed a little more power this year while maintaining acceptable strike zone judgement. I think he'll break out next year, but bidders close to $10 might be disappointed again. Grab him if you see the A's moving him up in the order; once he learns to wait for his pitch, you'll want him on your team.
The northwest suburbs of Chicago seem to breed quality catchers, as Todd Hundley, Wilson, and Paul all competed in my hometown high school conference. Paul still doesn't have the plate discipline to support any help in BA, but he can run a bit, and a half dozen steals from your catcher are always nice. If Sandy Alomar stays, draft him in the endgame only, but if he can get 300AB, he might slightly improve on these numbers.
Bengie can't be happy about Jorge Fabregas' new contract. First Ben gets injured and the Angels replace him with his brother Jose, and despite Jose hitting for almost .300 points of OPS more than Jorge, Fabregas gets the deal as Bengie's backup. Molina could improve dramatically one of these years if he ever raises his walk rate, but plate discipline isn't a major forte of Angels' hitting philosophy. Stay under $6, and Ben will earn your money; more than that would be expecting too much without a new hitting coach.
He's always had talent but seems to be injured when opportunities open. He doesn't have the durability to start for anyone, but he won't hurt you for a buck. If IRod goes, his replacement should be worth owning. If its Haselman, stay with low bids, and instead target his backup.
L stands for Landon, but it might as well mean left-handed hitter, as his bat will keep Johnson employed for a decade or so. He has very good plate discipline and strike zone control, and while he doesn't have much power, he can help a team offensively in a limited role. The White Sox left him off last year's playoff roster after he spent the entire year with the team. We don't believe in chemistry, but it was still an unwarranted decision, hurting someone who could be very useful to them for a few more years.
Syd Thrift didn't think he was good enough to play for the 4th place Orioles, so Billy Beane picked him up to back-up Hernandez and provide a lefty pinch-hitter for the Wild Card team. Something doesn't add up, since Myers still has a little power and decent plate discipline. Oakland's already re-signed him cheaply, so if you need an endgame pickup, Myers will earn your buck.
After the Orioles picked him up from the Dodgers for Mike Trombley, Gil displayed decent defense and good OBP in limited action. However, his minor league plate discipline was abhorrent and his upside is limited. Considering all of Baltimore's catching problems, Gil could wind up as the starter with a good spring training although I think it's far more likely that they'll sign or trade for someone else by then. His dollar was probably a fluke, but catchers sometimes develop offensive prowess after several years in the majors. Check back with Gil after he hits free agency, and don't expect much until then.
The National League experienced a bit more variation in the types of catchers available, but the message seems the same. Don't spend your money on an expensive catcher. The odds of injury remain high, and seemingly solid performers can disappear very quickly into negative roto dollars. Especially with all the young guns now available, take a chance on two guys, maybe even up to $5 or $6 in the AL, and spend your money on lower risk areas elsewhere. Interesting American League catchers without Positive Draft Value will be discussed tomorrow. Today's Fantasy Rx:Several potentially significant waiver moves and releases happened on the first day of free agency yesterday. Do you think any of these in particular will help teams, or were these just administrative moves. Send in your thoughts. I'll probably cover some of this week's "minor" transactions this weekend, and I'd be happy to include some user comments in the discussion.
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