November 20th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Most of you were probably at least mildly surprised by some of yesterday's rankings. To pre-empt some of your questions, I'll add the following additional qualifications. Batting average dollars are determined to the extent that a player exceeds the last place team in batting average in a given league. An average above that point should help your team earn points, while an average below that point should hurt your team. The difference in BA between a given player and the last place team is then multiplied by the number of at-bats. We found it extremely difficult to determining exactly what batting average to use for these numbers since they're supposed to reflect many leagues. The average chosen should neither represent a team tanking average by drafting BA ciphers like Rey Ordonez and evil catchers Blanco and Matheny, nor an incredibly strong league where these "hitters" are never drafted. We chose .2659 as the average for these leagues, as it seemed a reasonable number based on the leagues we were in and those we otherwise observed. These rankings also do not guarantee that enough players with positive draft value will be available for every position. The next 9 catchers chosen, while necessary to complete league rosters, do actually hurt your team. We could replace some of the worst outfielders with these catchers, but these rankings are supposed to also give us an indication of what strategies to pursue. Not punishing people for drafting otherwise useless and often hurtful catchers doesn't accurately simulate most leagues, so we find no reason to change our positive value pool. Also, you may have noticed that we're only including stats compiled while in the National League. We realize that many of you play in leagues where you can keep players who switch leagues, but traditional roto rules do not allow this. About half our leagues allow it and half our leagues don't, and we figured it was more important to discuss how players did in their time in each league, rather than take their seasons as a whole. We of course will consider players' seasons and career as a whole when we project next years statistics, but we don't find it overly relevant for our current purposes. Today we'll review the "other" catchers. You likely drafted someone that wasn't on yesterday's list (we certainly owned our fair share of these bums), so today we'll cover another fifteen backstops. Interesting National League Catchers without Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
A graduate of Norfolk Country Club, Wilson is Mike Piazza's brand spanking new caddy.
Fire up the Bunt Signal; only Buntman can save us from The Manager's nefarious schemes! The Bob in the BOB probably thinks he never has to deal with criticism again, so someone should tell him that the other team is supposed to try to win, not promote history for your players. Despite these distractions, Davis had a decent year with good contributions to your team's counting numbers. He could be a roto asset if he ever gained control of the strike zone.
The quintessential one-dollar catcher, Eusebio won't help your team but won't hurt it either. While a safe endgame pick, owning Tony shouldn't be a goal. He has little upside but should continue to perform acceptably in a limited role in Houston.
LaRue provides some decent power but hasn't hit above .254 since AA in 1998. If left alone in Cincy, he should mature into a poor man's Javy Lopez. Corky Miller has supporters in the organization, but LaRue should be able to hold him off for a year or two since Miller has minor league options available and LaRue remains relatively inexpensive.
Scott Servais the catcher (not Scott Service the pitcher) was once traded with Luis Gonzalez for Rick Wilkins. Still a passable backup backstop, he's unlikely to see regular playing time again.
Fasano has displayed significant power at AAA (21 HR in 280 AB in '99), and needs a chance to show it at the major league level. He won't help a team by scratching out 100 at-bats a year. Consistent playing time and 250 AB as a backup could benefit everyone, your fantasy team included.
Girardi won't help your team in any meaningful way but shouldn't hurt it either. I met him over ten years ago at a fan clinic the Cubs held on the Wrigley infield. Joe's a really nice guy, and he's involved with a lot of charity work. Unfortunately for my Cubs, a lot of it seems to involve helping the opposing pitcher to lower his ERA.
Torrealba is a Giant catching prospect with very solid doubles power in the high minors. He's even shown glimpses of plate discipline in the past. Not a great bet for 2002, but he's someone to keep in mind for 2003 and beyond. Scouts love his 2001 BA.
Whenever anyone tells you how wonderfully Felipe Alou managed, please point them in the direction of Mr. Barrett. He's a prime example of why you should leave young hitters alone to let them develop at a single position. If Barrett ever receives good hitting instruction involving the concept of waiting for his pitch, he'll rebound to another double-digit roto year. Until them, gamble below $5.
A valuable roto asset when healthy, Lieberthal lost most of another year to injury. While he only has about a 20% chance of additional injury next season, he still will be returning from major ACL/MCL surgery. If you can get him for under $10, you may have a major bargain.
Paul Bako is not your friend. He should not be starting for a major league team. While his LH bat might appear to be handy, he has very little offensive upside. Bako has never demonstrated enough plate discipline for us to expect anything above a .250 average, and even if he can somehow manage a half dozen homers, he won't earn your $1.
Ausmus single-handedly depressed Enron's ballpark ratings on offense. His past stats did not predict these numbers, but he stopped hitting LHP and his BB/K dropped by half. If he has any sense of history, he'll already have rented a Detroit apartment since he'll likely be a Tiger by the time you read this. However, if someone can keep Randy and Tal Smith apart at the table Thursday, maybe they'll realize that Ausmus could rebound while staying in Enron. Comerica National Park already has enough catchers for next year.
The National League's premiere defensive catcher, Blanco probably shouldn't be on your team. While he's displayed a variety of skills over the last few years, and could put them together and earn $8 next year in Miller Park, I find that probability to be extremely low. He displayed symptoms of Kirt Manwaring disease in Colorado; why should he change now?
The National League's OTHER premiere defensive catcher, Matheny has never displayed any talents on offense. He will hurt your team if you draft him unless your league gives an additional standings' point for every gold glove vote your players receive.
Not that we're biased, but we owned him on at least one of our teams for practically the entire year. It also doesn't hurt that he grew up about two miles away from me. Todd WILL rebound strongly next year because there's really no way he could be worse (as he was the 350th best fantasy position player in the league). If you hadn't heard, upon returning to his Chicago hometown with the "pressures" of his $24/4 contract, his mom passed away after a painful illness. He also (temporarily) gave up switch-hitting and appeared lost at the plate. By the end of the year, he seemed recovered and relaxed, playing well whenever Don Baylor started him for a couple games in a row. Todd showed he still had solid power by slugging .634 SLG in September. His average might never recover to last year's peak, but I think he'll hit 30 homers again, perhaps as soon as next season.
We will discuss American League catchers with Positive Draft Value tomorrow. Today's Fantasy Rx:Go to one of the major websites, probably MLB.com if they've updated, and check out your favorite team's 40-man roster. Learn who they called up, and peruse Baseball America to see who didn't make the cut. Personally, I'm rather surprised that the Cubs added Francis Beltran instead of a couple of other pitchers (I believe Mike Wuertz was left off). If anyone has questions about their team's 40-man roster, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to discuss them in this weekend's articles. Make sure you know the location of your turkey; there's not much time left to find one if you haven't already made arrangements.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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