How We Value Players, Part Two

Category Dollars

Yesterday we discussed what we perceive as some of the problems of Standings' Gain Points. Specifically, the calculations of the SGP denominators are still projections even when they are based on a significant accumulation of historical data. Adding a denominator projection to the already imperfect player projections creates an unnecessarily high level of risk in the player projections.

We overcome this problem by using a method we call "Category Dollars."

The essence of this method is to determine a player's dollar worth in a statistical category with respect to the other players likely drafted. We then take the sum of his value in each category to obtain his Total Category Dollars. The TCD is then recomputed to the marginal value of a specific player over the worst player drafted. We've determined these values in the past by using a spreadsheet, finding it to be essential for the complex computations that we need.

For example, Scott Rolen this season earned approximately either 5 or 6 dollars in each 4x4 category. He hit 25 R, and the total HR of the 168 players drafted on offense in a standard NL-only, 12-team league was 2457 HR. We then multiply his percentage of total HR by the dollars assigned to each category. In a 12-team league, $3120 dollars are available at the draft table. Using a standard 65% offense / 35% defense split, we determine that $2028 dollars are available for offensive players. $2028 / 4 categories = $507 per category.

Scott Rolen's HR$ = 25HR / 2457HR = .0102 * $3120 *.65 / 4 = $5.16 HR$

His Total Category Dollars earned computes to $23.40. We then subtract the difference between the 169th player's category dollars from the $1 he should earn. Barry Larkin is .84 above $1, leaving Rolen with a Category Dollar Value of $22.56.

The last step we take is to make sure the total value of the top 168 players equals $2028. So we divide Rolen's Category Dollar Value (CDV) of $22.56 by the total Category Dollar Value for the top 168 players, $1886.72, and then multiply it by the dollars available to calculate the percentage of Draft Dollars he deserves.

After this final adjustment, Rolen's price = 22.56 / 1886.72 * $2028 = 24.25 = $24.

Setting all this data up on a spreadsheet allows you to quickly sort the lists the Draft Dollars and Category Dollar Value to calculate both the top 168 players. It also lets you determine how much each one should earn and the ranking at each dollar value.

Category Inflation

Now that we know how to calculate the Draft Dollars for every player, we can discuss the specifics of the real advantages this system possesses over SGP.

Aside from the reduced risk of only using player projections without adding denominator projections, we can calculate inflation individually for both hitters and pitchers. Most importantly, we actually break it down to each category. This distillation allows us to compensate at the draft table for either keeper inflation or runs on players during the actual draft.

Category inflation is based around removing the statistics for a kept player from the draft pool, while insuring the player retains his position in the draft pool and his salary is deducted from available funds.

The most visible example of how this works occurs in saves since almost all the value in the category is distributed among about twenty pitchers. Nine of the top fourteen NL pitchers in 2001 were closers, including six of the top eight. If even one or two of these had been kept prior to draft day, all these relievers' values would increase notably.

Robb Nen earned $35, second among pitchers, largely due to leading the league with 45 saves. He earned $21 in saves alone, a dollar more than Jeff Shaw, Jose Mesa, Armando Benitez, and Trevor Hoffman earned for their closing contributions. Most of these pitchers, if kept on opening day, would have gone for close to their current value since they were all fairly established closers. World Series Almost-Goat Byung-Hyun Kim would have been the most likely to be kept cheaply, so let's see how a reasonable $5 Kim salary would impact the other closers.

Removing his 19 saves from the total 586 saves earned by the top 108 pitchers is a 3% decrease in the save total. The nine remaining top closers, each with 22 saves or more, all increase by $1 each.

Extending this example further, someone likely acquired Jose Mesa for a lot less at your auction than the $31 he wound up earning. Anyone lucky enough to draft him likely did very well in your league, so let's see what taking his gaudy numbers out of this mix would do to the other salaries.

$15 was probably a reasonable price for Mesa in March, and his 42 saves were merely a happy reward for his owners. Combined with Kim's 19 saves, they account for 10% of the total available NL saves this season.

Removing this $52 of closer value, concentrated primarily in saves, elevates the other closers up to $3 in salary each. Nen becomes the most valuable available NL pitcher, worth $38 in retro-drafts, a buck more than NL Cy Young Winner Randy Johnson.

If you have the ability to update your spreadsheet during drafts, this method will enable you to "overspend" to obtain needed categories. With category inflation, certain players will see their value elevated dramatically through the course of the draft.

One of the downsides is that after most of the closers are picked, the remaining saves don't tell you much about a pitcher's value. You often need to simply remove saves from your valuation at this point in order to retain value in starting pitchers. However, as long as even four or five closers remain on the market, this method works extremely well for correctly inflating their relative value during the draft. Anyone with rotisserie experience knows that your drafted roster should appear competitive in most, if not all categories, and securing player with rarer skills helps insure the effectiveness of this strategy.

Tomorrow, we will compare these two methods for several different leagues to determine which will be more effective. While we believe strongly in the usefulness of Category Dollars, SGP has some advantages which must at least be reviewed.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Learn your spreadsheet. Almost every computer on which you could read this article has a fairly powerful spreadsheet program, and knowledge of these programs is essential to calculating player values for your league.

Of course, if you've already mastered your spreadsheet, go see the Harry Potter movie and tell us how you liked it.